Two weeks ago, I mentioned plotting Anna's return to London (she owes both Holmes brothers, and Mycroft needs a spy) and a new Micka adventure.
Here's where things get dark.
The last time Micka and Katvar lived in my head was 2018. Since I want accurate climate science in their world, I dove into recent research. What I found was terrifying enough to make me want to pack my bags and leave for Chile.
Originally, I'd imagined sending Micka and Katvar to a green Gotland. Sheep everywhere, sustainable tech, hope to defeat the BSA, at least for a little while. But the latest climate models point to something far grimmer: in Micka's world, the AMOC has long collapsed.
What's the AMOC? It's the Atlantic part of the ocean conveyor belt that moves warm water north and cold water south, regulating temperatures and climate patterns across Europe and North America. When it stops, everything changes.
The ocean conveyor belt. Source: NOAA.
Recent models suggest AMOC collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095.
Yep, 2025.
AMOC has been weakening by 0.46 Sverdrups per decade since 1950, which translates to roughly a 20% slowdown to date.
We're talking about modelled future scenarios based on complicated and costly measurements observing AMOC in the past. Do not expect 100% consensus predictions. But for Micka's world, I need to pick what's the likeliest scenario. This could mean:
Winter sea ice reaching the German coast
Growing seasons too short for agriculture north of Hamburg
Extreme heat and drought south of the Alps
Gotland inhabited by a handful of semi-nomadic reindeer herders who cross the sea ice
Until next time,
